Every governance event classified by the Civica Pulse Beta pipeline. Updated daily.
The Civica Pulse Beta is a real-time governance shock monitor under active validation. Events queued for human review (severe and catastrophic severity tiers, plus events where the classifier didn't reach consensus) do not drive published Pulse scores until a reviewer confirms them. See the Pulse methodology for the full pipeline.
(merkur.de)
- Donald Trump sagt , die united states werden Kuba „ fast sofort übernehmen (tz.de)
- Donald Trump sagt , die united states werden Kuba „ fast sofort übernehmen (hna.de)
- Donald Trump sagt , die united states werden Kuba „ fast sofort übernehmen (wa.de)
- Donald Trump sagt , die united states werden Kuba „ fast sofort übernehmen (fnp.de)
- Donald Trump sagt , die united states werden Kuba „ fast sofort übernehmen (soester-anzeiger.de)
Trump's statement that the US will 'take over' Cuba constitutes a territorial claim/dispute event, though it remains rhetorical at this stage without concrete military or diplomatic action.
Run 2 · temp 0.4
Secession or territorial dispute event
StabilityModerate − · -3
Trump's statement that the US will 'take over' Cuba constitutes a territorial claim/dispute event, though it remains rhetorical rather than an actual military or political action at this stage.
Run 3 · temp 0.8
Secession or territorial dispute event
StabilityModerate − · -3
Trump's statement that the US will 'take over' Cuba nearly immediately constitutes a territorial claim/dispute event, though it remains rhetorical at this stage with no confirmed military or diplomatic action.
PeruMay 2, 2026Delia Espinoza sobre marchas violentas en el JNE : No existe golpe de estado democrático , va en contra de la legalidad electoral StabilityModerate − · -32/3 agree
Violent marches targeting Peru's National Elections Jury (JNE) constitute electoral violence around an electoral institution, with a senior official explicitly warning against actions undermining electoral legality.
Run 2 · temp 0.4
Electoral violence (sub-armed-conflict threshold)
StabilityModerate − · -3
Violent marches targeting Peru's National Elections Jury (JNE) constitute electoral violence around an electoral institution, with a senior official publicly rejecting claims of a 'democratic coup' and affirming electoral legality.
AlbaniaMay 2, 2026Paralajmërohet rrezik për humbjen e fondeve nga BE : Mungesa e institucioneve bllokon reformatStabilityModerate − · -32/3 agree
The headline warns of risk of losing EU funds due to absence/blockage of institutions preventing reforms, suggesting an institutional deadlock that could qualify as a constitutional crisis, though the evidence is thin and the story may be routine political commentary.
Run 3 · temp 0.8
Constitutional crisis without coup
StabilityModerate − · -3
The headline warns of risk of losing EU funds due to lack of functioning institutions blocking reforms, suggesting an institutional deadlock that approximates a constitutional crisis, though the single low-detail Albanian-language source limits confidence.
RomaniaApr 30, 2026Analiză Politico : Cum să înțelegi haosul politic din România ca un expert . „ Riscă să zguduie echilibrul UE pe flancul estic StabilityModerate − · -33/3 agree
The Politico analysis describing Romania's 'political chaos' as risking destabilization of the EU's eastern flank suggests an ongoing constitutional or political crisis, though the brief snippet lacks specific details to confirm a more precise category.
Run 2 · temp 0.4
Constitutional crisis without coup
StabilityModerate − · -3
The Politico analysis describing Romania's political situation as 'chaos' risking EU eastern flank stability suggests an ongoing constitutional or political crisis, though the limited body text prevents precise categorization.
Run 3 · temp 0.8
Constitutional crisis without coup
StabilityModerate − · -3
The Politico analysis describing Romania's 'political chaos' as risking EU eastern flank stability suggests an ongoing constitutional or political crisis, though the headline alone provides limited specifics to confirm the exact nature of the instability.
United StatesApr 30, 2026A Constitutional Moment in Hungary ? - Dissent MagazineStabilityModerate − · -32/3 agree
The headline references a 'constitutional moment' in Hungary, suggesting a significant constitutional development, but the extremely sparse body text provides insufficient detail to classify with confidence beyond a general constitutional crisis framing.
Run 3 · temp 0.8
Constitutional crisis without coup
StabilityModerate − · -3
The headline suggests a significant constitutional moment in Hungary, which could indicate a constitutional crisis or major institutional confrontation, but the sparse source content from an opinion magazine provides insufficient detail to classify with confidence.
BrazilApr 30, 2026A aliança pela impunidade : bolsonaristas atacam a democracia ao proteger golpistasStabilityModerate − · -33/3 agree
The headline alleges Bolsonaristas are forming an 'alliance for impunity' to protect coup plotters, suggesting an ongoing institutional standoff over accountability for the alleged 2022 coup attempt, which fits a constitutional crisis framing, though the source is a partisan outlet and specifics are thin.
Run 2 · temp 0.4
Constitutional crisis without coup
StabilityModerate − · -3
The headline alleges Bolsonaristas are forming an 'impunity alliance' to protect coup plotters, suggesting an ongoing institutional standoff over accountability for the January 8 events, which fits a constitutional crisis framing, though the source is a partisan outlet and specifics are thin.
Run 3 · temp 0.8
Constitutional crisis without coup
StabilityModerate − · -3
The headline alleges Bolsonaristas are forming an 'alliance for impunity' to protect coup plotters, suggesting an ongoing institutional crisis around accountability for the 2022/2023 coup attempt, but the source is a single partisan outlet with limited corroborating detail.
IsraelApr 30, 2026قياديان كرديان يشرحان للجزيرة نت أسباب تعثر تشكيل حكومة كردستان | سياسةStabilityLow − · -23/3 agree
Government collapse via no-confidence / coalition breakdown
StabilityLow − · -2
Kurdish leaders explain to Al Jazeera the reasons behind the stalled formation of the Kurdistan Regional Government, indicating a coalition/political deadlock preventing government formation.
Run 2 · temp 0.4
Government collapse via no-confidence / coalition breakdown
StabilityLow − · -2
Kurdish leaders explain to Al Jazeera the reasons for the stalled formation of the Kurdistan Regional Government, indicating a coalition/political deadlock preventing government formation, which fits government collapse via coalition breakdown at a low negative severity.
Run 3 · temp 0.8
Government collapse via no-confidence / coalition breakdown
StabilityLow − · -2
Two Kurdish leaders explain to Al Jazeera the reasons behind the stalling of Kurdistan regional government formation, indicating a coalition/political deadlock without a coup or armed takeover.
Government collapse via no-confidence / coalition breakdown
StabilityLow − · -2
The dissolution of Kosovo's parliament suggests a government collapse or early election trigger, a moderate but not severe democratic disruption in a fragile parliamentary system, though limited context prevents higher confidence.
Run 2 · temp 0.4
Government collapse via no-confidence / coalition breakdown
StabilityLow − · -2
The dissolution of Kosovo's parliament suggests a government collapse or early election trigger, which fits the government_collapse category, though minimal context makes confident classification difficult.
Run 3 · temp 0.8
Government collapse via no-confidence / coalition breakdown
StabilityLow − · -2
The dissolution of Kosovo's parliament suggests a government collapse or early election trigger, likely due to coalition breakdown or no-confidence dynamics, though limited context makes precise classification uncertain.
IsraelApr 29, 2026Israel Bankrolls War Crimes in Occupied Syrian GolanStabilitySevere − · -63/3 agree
On April 17, 2026, Israel's cabinet approved a $334 million plan to expand Israeli civilian settlements in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, according to Human Rights Watch. The organization characterized the population transfer as violating international law and called on the EU, UK, and other countries to suspend trade agreements and arms transfers to Israel in response. The decision represents a continuation of Israeli settlement expansion in occupied territories alongside similar activities in the West Bank.
AI summary · Claude Haiku
Source description (1 paragraph)
(Beirut) – The Israeli government has approved a $334 million plan to transfer thousands more Israeli civilians into the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, Human Rights Watch said today. The decision, adopted by the cabinet on April 17, 2026, is a clear statement of intent to commit war crimes.
“Israel's cabinet has put public money behind a war crime in Syria at the same time as it is turbocharging settlement expansion in the West Bank alongside continued impunity for violence against Palestinians there,” said Hiba Zayadin, senior Syria researcher at Human Rights Watch. “A permanent population transfer into Syrian territory violates international norms with grave implications for long-displaced Syrians.”
The European Union and its member states, the United Kingdom, and other countries with leverage should respond by suspending their trade deals with Israel and adopting a ban on trade and business with illegal Israeli settlements, applying to the occupied Golan Heights as well as the West Bank. Countries should also suspend arms transfers to Israel. Where national laws allow, prosecutors in third co
Israel's cabinet-approved $334 million plan to transfer thousands of Israeli civilians into the occupied Syrian Golan Heights constitutes a deliberate state-sponsored population transfer into foreign-occupied territory, which HRW characterizes as a war crime under international law, fitting the foreign occupation category.
Run 2 · temp 0.4
Foreign occupation or imposition
StabilitySevere − · -6
Israel's cabinet-approved $334 million plan to transfer thousands of civilians into the occupied Syrian Golan Heights constitutes a deliberate deepening of foreign occupation and population transfer, which HRW characterizes as a war crime under international law.
Run 3 · temp 0.8
Foreign occupation or imposition
StabilitySevere − · -6
Israel's $334M cabinet-approved plan to transfer thousands of civilians into the occupied Syrian Golan Heights constitutes a deliberate, state-funded expansion of foreign occupation and population transfer, which HRW characterizes as a war crime under international law.